This week’s weather patterns significantly influenced drought conditions across the United States, with precipitation being the key factor. Storms sweeping through the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions delivered substantial rainfall, leading to positive changes in several areas. These areas include eastern Oklahoma, northeastern Mississippi, northern Alabama, the Tennessee-North Carolina border region, Virginia, and northern West Virginia.
However, outside this central and eastern band of rainfall, many regions continued to experience worsening drought conditions due to persistent lack of precipitation. The southeastern coastal states particularly suffered, with widespread drought intensification indicated by short-term weather data. Elevated temperatures in many of these locations exacerbated the dryness.
While snowfall in the Northern Rockies and central Montana brought some relief, the majority of the western U.S. did not experience such benefits. Coastal mountain precipitation in Oregon and California maintained existing conditions, but Nevada and the Four Corners region saw continued drought deterioration. High-elevation areas in the West are also facing concerns due to low snowpack levels for this time of year. In contrast, Hawaii saw improvements in its drought situation, while Alaska and Puerto Rico remained free from any drought or dry conditions.
Northeast Drought Conditions
Overall, the Northeast region saw largely stable conditions this week. However, some localized improvements occurred in western Maryland, southeastern Pennsylvania, and parts of West Virginia, thanks to the week’s rainfall. The far northeast of New Jersey also experienced slight relief. Unfortunately, the beneficial storms bypassed the rest of the Northeast, resulting in a degradation to moderate drought status for Block Island, Rhode Island, and Nantucket, Massachusetts.
Southeast Drought Conditions
The southern portions of the Southeast region were unfortunately missed by any significant rainfall, compounding weeks, and in some areas, months of dryness. Above-average temperatures further contributed to the worsening conditions. Abnormally dry and moderate drought areas expanded across Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. Indicators such as streamflow, soil moisture, and precipitation data all point to rapid drying trends over the past one to three months. The expansion of abnormally dry conditions also continued into South Carolina. In contrast, North Carolina and Virginia benefited from this week’s precipitation, experiencing a one-category improvement in drought status.
South Drought Conditions
Significant rainfall swept across western Oklahoma and into Kentucky, bringing relief to the few remaining areas experiencing dry or drought conditions in this region. Northwestern Oklahoma saw some abnormal drought conditions removed, along with northeastern Mississippi. However, western and central Texas, Louisiana, and southern Mississippi did not receive this heavy precipitation, leading to a worsening of drought conditions.
Midwest Drought Conditions
The Midwest region remained largely unchanged, except for a notable expansion of abnormally dry conditions stretching from central Missouri to west-central Ohio. This area continued to miss the storms that brought substantial precipitation to regions just to the south. Abnormally dry conditions also expanded eastward in central and southeastern Texas, extending into southern Louisiana and Mississippi, where indicators show drying trends over the past month or two.
High Plains Drought Conditions
The High Plains region once again missed out on the precipitation that benefited the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Western Nebraska and Kansas experienced drought degradation as the persistent lack of rainfall continues to impact the area. Colorado also saw worsening conditions. In the far Northeast of the High Plains region, abnormally dry conditions expanded from Nebraska and Kansas. Western Colorado continues to experience degradation in the Western Slope and San Juan regions. Wyoming, however, saw some extreme drought conditions removed in its northwest and north-central areas as snowpack has significantly improved in non-mountainous regions.
West Drought Conditions
Washington and northwestern Montana saw an expansion of moderate drought. Despite recent snowfall, these areas are still facing significant moisture deficits. Conversely, central Idaho and central Montana experienced widespread improvements as conditions continue to recover. Idaho has benefited from recent snow from Boise extending into the Rocky Mountains and Montana. California’s drought conditions remained unchanged this week. Conditions continued to worsen across the Four Corners area in the Southwest. Snowpack in this region is below normal for this time of year, and both soil moisture and streamflow levels are significantly below normal.
Caribbean Drought Conditions
Drought conditions remained stable in Puerto Rico this week.
The U.S. Virgin Islands received good rainfall over the past week and remain drought-free. Weather observations indicated that St. Thomas received 0.82 to 0.99 inches of rain, and King Airport has already recorded more rainfall than the average for the entire month of February. St. John received 0.91 to 1.00 inches, while St. Croix received 0.68 to 1.92 inches, also exceeding the average rainfall for the entire month.
The Standardized Precipitation Index indicates normal to wet conditions for St. Thomas and St. John across all time scales. The Vegetation Health Index shows minimal vegetation stress. The water level in a well on St. John was recorded at 6.85 feet below the land surface on February 10th, indicating ongoing monitoring of water resources. Wells on St. Thomas and St. Croix have shown rising water levels in recent days in response to the recent rainfall.
Pacific Drought Conditions
Alaska remained free of drought conditions this week.
The past week was generally dry in Hawaii, but regrowth from Oahu to the Big Island is still evident following the rainy conditions in late January. Streamflow is near to above normal at almost all locations across the state. One-category improvements in drought status were made from Oahu to the Big Island.
The Republic of Palau received ample rainfall, with over 5 inches recorded at Palau and Koror. Water supplies in this region are expected to be sufficient.
The Mariana Islands continue to experience dryness, with Saipan classified as being in severe drought (D2) and receiving 0.66 to 1.0 inch of rainfall at island gauges. Guam and Rota received 0.22 and 0.33 inches of rain, respectively, and are both in abnormally dry conditions (D0). These islands require at least one inch of rainfall per week to meet minimum water needs. Reports of grass fires and browning vegetation have been noted in recent weeks, highlighting the impact of the dry conditions.
Conditions are varied across the Federated States of Micronesia. Some locations received ample rainfall, while others continued to experience dryness. Yap remains in moderate drought (D1) after receiving 0.39 inches of rain. Woleai is in abnormally dry conditions (D0) after receiving 1.53 inches. Pingelap is also in abnormally dry conditions (D0) and received 1.48 inches. Kapingamarangi returned to normal conditions after receiving substantial rainfall of 4.13 and 1.93 inches in recent weeks. Several other locations, including Chuuk Lagoon, Kosrae, Lukunor, Nukuoro, and Pohnpei, received 4 inches or more of rainfall.
Some of the Marshall Islands received abundant rainfall, while Kwajalein remains in moderate drought (D1) and reported 0.72 inches of rain. Mili received significant precipitation in late January, which should be sufficient to meet water needs for several weeks. The Majuro reservoirs held 26.59 million gallons of water on February 11th after receiving 6.88 inches of rain in the past week, indicating improved water security.
American Samoa remains in abnormally dry conditions (D0). Pago Pago, Siufaga Ridge, and Toa Ridge received between 0.23 and 0.74 inches of precipitation. These islands require 2 inches of rain per week to meet minimum water needs.
Looking Ahead at Precipitation Forecasts
The forecast for the next five to seven days indicates potential precipitation for some coastal areas of the West, extending from the Washington Cascades into much of California. Higher-elevation areas in the Intermountain West and Southwest are also expected to receive some precipitation. Significant rainfall is anticipated across the South, Southeast, and Northeast, with estimated amounts ranging from 1.25 to 5 inches in the lower Ohio River Valley and through Alabama. Unfortunately, much of the Plains region, from North Dakota through central-west Texas, is expected to receive less than a quarter of an inch of precipitation, suggesting continued or worsening drought conditions in these areas.
The 6-10 day outlook suggests the highest probability of below-normal temperatures in the central Midwest. Below-normal temperatures are generally expected from central Montana to central Texas and eastward into Maine. The highest chances of above-normal temperatures are predicted for Alaska and Hawaii. Southern Arizona and southern Florida are expected to experience near-normal temperatures. The greatest likelihood of above-normal precipitation is forecast across the Gulf Coast from Texas and across the Florida Peninsula. A large area of the country stretching from Washington towards the Gulf of Mexico is leaning towards above-normal precipitation. Alaska is also leaning towards above-normal precipitation. Conversely, California’s central and southern coast is expected to be drier than normal, as are, to a lesser extent, Arizona, Nevada, and southwest New Mexico. The northern Midwest and Great Lakes region, along with Hawaii, are expected to have near or slightly below normal precipitation.
This detailed drought monitoring report provides valuable insights into the current drought situation across various regions of the United States and its territories, highlighting the diverse impacts of recent weather patterns and offering a glimpse into potential future conditions. Understanding these regional variations is crucial for effective water resource management and drought mitigation strategies across the 50 states that comprise the United States, and its territories.
