Understanding voter turnout is crucial for gauging the health and inclusivity of a democracy. In the United States, this understanding often begins with examining the number of registered voters. Registration acts as a gateway to voting, representing the segment of the population that has taken the necessary steps to participate in elections. But how many registered voters are there in the US, and how has this number changed over time? This article delves into the historical trends of registered voters in the US, exploring different measures of voter participation and the factors influencing these figures.
To accurately assess voter turnout, it’s essential to distinguish between different population metrics. The most commonly used are:
- Voting Age Population (VAP): This is the broadest measure, encompassing all residents above the legal voting age, regardless of citizenship or eligibility.
- Voting Eligible Population (VEP): A more refined measure, VEP includes citizens who are of voting age and are not legally barred from voting (e.g., felons in some states).
- Registered Voters: This is the most specific group – individuals who are eligible to vote and have completed the registration process as required by their state.
While the total number of votes cast is a concrete figure, VAP, VEP, and registered voter counts are often estimates, especially for historical data. These estimates are typically derived from census data and surveys conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Examining the historical data reveals interesting trends in voter registration and turnout. While direct figures for registered voters before 1960 are less consistently reported by the Census Bureau, analyzing voter turnout in relation to VAP and VEP provides valuable context.
Key Observations on Registered Voters and Turnout:
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Registration as a Requirement: It’s important to note that voter registration was not universally required in the US until well into the 20th century. Some states didn’t implement uniform registration requirements until the 1970s, and even as of 2016, North Dakota had no registration requirement. This historical context explains why in some instances, particularly in earlier elections, the number of votes cast could occasionally exceed the reported number of registered voters. The 1960 election is a notable example of this phenomenon.
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Impact of Registration on Turnout: Scholars widely agree that the ease of voter registration significantly impacts turnout rates. States with more accessible registration processes generally experience higher voter participation. This is a key factor when comparing turnout across different states or across different periods with varying registration laws.
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Electoral Competition and Registration: The level of competition in an election also plays a role in driving voter registration and turnout. When elections are perceived as high-stakes and closely contested, individuals are more likely to register and vote. The perceived importance of an election can motivate eligible citizens to complete the registration process to ensure their voice is heard.
Data Sources for Registered Voters:
The primary source for data on registered voters is the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS provides estimates of registered voters, along with data on VAP and VEP. However, it’s important to acknowledge potential discrepancies in registration data.
Another valuable source is the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC). The EAC surveys county-level election officials and publishes data on the total number of persons “registered and eligible to vote.” Interestingly, EAC data sometimes presents higher figures for registered voters compared to CPS estimates. For example, in 2016, the EAC’s sum of county-level registered voters was significantly higher than the CPS estimate for the same year. This difference highlights the complexities in accurately counting registered voters and the variations that can arise from different data collection methodologies.
Historical Data on Voter Turnout and Registered Voters (Selected Years):
| Year | Turnout | Voting Age Population (VAP) | Voting Eligible Population (VEP) | Registered Voters | Turnout as % VAP | Turnout as % VEP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1960 | 68,836,385 | 108,458,000 | 63,854,789 | 63.5% | ||
| 1964 | 70,097,935 | 110,604,000 | 73,715,818 | 63.4% | ||
| 1968 | 73,026,831 | 116,353,000 | 81,658,180 | 62.8% | ||
| 1972 | 77,625,152 | 136,203,000 | 98,480,000 | 57.0% | ||
| 1976 | 81,603,346 | 146,548,000 | 97,761,000 | 55.7% | ||
| 1980 | 86,496,851 | 157,085,000 | 147,870,815 | 105,035,000 | 55.1% | 58.4% |
| 1984 | 92,654,861 | 169,963,000 | 167,701,904 | 116,106,000 | 54.5% | 55.2% |
| 1988 | 91,586,725 | 178,098,000 | 173,579,281 | 118,589,000 | 51.4% | 52.8% |
| 1992 | 104,600,366 | 185,684,000 | 179,655,523 | 126,578,000 | 56.3% | 58.2% |
| 1996 | 96,389,818 | 193,652,000 | 186,347,044 | 127,661,000 | 49.8% | 51.7% |
| 2000 | 105,594,024 | 202,609,000 | 194,331,436 | 129,549,000 | 52.1% | 54.3% |
| 2004 | 122,349,480 | 215,694,000 | 203,483,455 | 142,070,000 | 56.7% | 60.1% |
| 2008 | 131,406,895 | 225,499,000 | 213,313,508 | 146,310,000 | 58.3% | 61.6% |
| 2012 | 129,139,997 | 235,248,000 | 222,474,111 | 153,160,000 | 54.9% | 58.0% |
| 2016 | 136,787,187 | 245,502,000 | 230,931,921 | 157,596,000 | 55.7% | 59.2% |
| 2020 | 158,481,688 | 252,274,000 | 242,690,810 | 168,308,000 | 62.8% | 65.3% |
| 2024* | 155,201,157 | 266,978,268 | 244,666,890 | 58.1% | 63.4% |
*2024 data is preliminary.
Conclusion:
Understanding the number of registered voters in the US provides a vital perspective on electoral participation. While voter registration is a crucial step towards engaging in elections, it is influenced by various factors, including registration laws, electoral competition, and data collection methods. Analyzing historical trends in registered voters, alongside VAP and VEP, offers valuable insights into the dynamics of American democracy and the ongoing efforts to enhance voter participation. For more detailed data and ongoing updates, the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Election Assistance Commission, and U.S. Elections Project are valuable resources.
Sources:
Ansolabehere, Stephen and David M. Konisky, “The Introduction of Voter Registration and Its Effect on Turnout,” Political Analysis Winter 2006, Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 83-100.
Bennett, Stephen Earl, “The Uses and Abuses of Registration and Turnout Data,” PS: Political Science and Politics Vol 23, No. 2 (Jun., 1990): 166-171.
Burnham, Walter Dean, “The Turnout Problem,” Elections American Style ed. A. james Reichley (Brookings: Washington DC 1987)
Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey.
McDonald, Michael P., and Samuel L. Popkin, “The Myth of the Vanishing Voter,” American Political Science Review 95 (2001): 963-974.
Proquest Historical Statistics of the United States 2020, Table 441
US House of Representatives, Office of the Clerk, Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election
