Water, the essence of life, is becoming an increasingly scarce resource across the globe. Recent data from the World Resources Institute’s (WRI) Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas reveals a concerning reality: 25 countries, representing a quarter of the world’s population, grapple with extremely high water stress annually. This means they are consistently using almost all of their available water supply. Furthermore, at least 50% of the global population, approximately 4 billion people, endure highly water-stressed conditions for at least one month each year.
This level of water stress poses a significant threat to livelihoods, food security, energy production, and overall societal well-being. Water is indispensable for agriculture, industry, power generation, public health, and achieving global climate objectives.
Without improved water management strategies, the combined pressures of population growth, economic development, and climate change are set to exacerbate water stress in the coming years.
Decoding Global Water Stress: Key Factors
The core issue driving global water stress is simple: demand for water is outstripping supply. Globally, water demand has more than doubled since 1960, fueled by population growth and the expansion of water-intensive sectors like irrigated agriculture, livestock farming, energy production, and manufacturing. Compounding this demand surge are factors that constrain water supply, such as insufficient investment in water infrastructure, unsustainable water usage policies, and the increasing unpredictability of water availability due to climate change.
Water stress itself is quantified as the ratio of water demand to renewable water supply. This metric effectively measures the competition for local water resources. A smaller gap between supply and demand indicates a higher vulnerability to water shortages. “Extreme water stress” is defined as a country utilizing at least 80% of its available water supply, while “high water stress” signifies a withdrawal of 40% of the supply.
Without proactive interventions, including investments in robust water infrastructure and improved water governance, water stress is projected to worsen, particularly in regions experiencing rapid population growth and economic expansion.
Which Countries Are Most Water-Stressed? The Top 25 Nations
WRI data pinpoints 25 countries currently facing extreme water stress annually. These nations are utilizing over 80% of their renewable water resources for essential sectors like irrigation, livestock, industry, and domestic needs. Even short-term droughts can precipitate critical water shortages in these locations, potentially leading to government-imposed water rationing, as witnessed in various regions worldwide, including England, India, Iran, Mexico, and South Africa.
The five most acutely water-stressed countries are Bahrain, Cyprus, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, and Qatar. In these nations, water stress is primarily driven by inherently low water supply, coupled with substantial demand from domestic, agricultural, and industrial sectors.
Regionally, the Middle East and North Africa are the most water-stressed, with a staggering 83% of the population living under extremely high water stress. South Asia follows closely, with 74% of its population facing similar conditions.
Projecting Forward: Water Stress in 2050
Looking ahead to 2050, the situation is expected to deteriorate. Even under an optimistic scenario where global temperature rise is limited to between 1.3 degrees C and 2.4 degrees C by 2100, an additional 1 billion people are projected to experience extremely high water stress.
Global water demand is anticipated to surge by 20% to 25% by 2050, while the number of watersheds facing high year-to-year variability in water supplies is predicted to increase by 19%. For the Middle East and North Africa, this translates to a grim outlook where 100% of the population will be living with extremely high water stress by 2050. This poses severe challenges not only for individual consumers and water-dependent industries but also for political stability, as evidenced by water-related protests already occurring in countries like Iran.
Regional Shifts in Water Demand: Africa on the Rise
Sub-Saharan Africa is poised to witness the most dramatic surge in water demand between now and 2050. While current water stress levels are not critically high in most Sub-Saharan African countries, demand is escalating faster than in any other region globally. By 2050, water demand in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to skyrocket by 163%, four times the rate of increase compared to Latin America, the second-fastest-growing region, which is expected to see a 43% rise in demand.
This surge in water use, primarily driven by irrigation and domestic water supply needs, has the potential to fuel significant economic growth in Africa, projected to be the world’s fastest-growing economic region. However, inefficient and unsustainable water management practices also pose a threat, potentially reducing the region’s GDP by 6%.
In contrast, wealthier nations in North America and Europe have seen water demand plateau, largely due to investments in water-use efficiency. However, these high-income countries still contribute to water stress in lower-income nations through international trade and the embedded water footprint of imported goods.
Economic Repercussions of Water Stress: Trillions at Risk
Escalating water stress presents a significant threat to global economic growth and food security. Aqueduct data indicates that 31% of global GDP, a staggering $70 trillion, will be exposed to high water stress by 2050, a substantial increase from $15 trillion (24% of global GDP) in 2010. Just four countries – India, Mexico, Egypt, and Turkey – account for over half of the GDP at risk in 2050.
Water shortages can disrupt industries, cause energy outages, and lead to agricultural losses, as already observed in India, where water scarcity for cooling thermal power plants resulted in significant energy losses. Failure to implement effective water management policies could lead to GDP losses of 7% to 12% in India, China, and Central Asia, and 6% in much of Africa by 2050.
Global food security is also under threat, with 60% of the world’s irrigated agriculture already facing extremely high water stress, particularly for staple crops like sugarcane, wheat, rice, and maize. Meeting the food demands of a projected 10 billion people by 2050 will require a 56% increase in food calories compared to 2010, all while navigating increasing water stress and climate-related disasters.
Charting a Course Towards Water Security: Management Strategies
While the data paints a concerning picture of global water stress, it’s crucial to recognize that water stress does not inevitably lead to water crisis. Examples like Singapore and Las Vegas demonstrate that societies can thrive even in water-scarce environments by adopting strategies such as water-efficient landscaping, desalination, and wastewater treatment and reuse.
WRI research suggests that addressing global water challenges is more affordable than commonly perceived, estimated to cost about 1% of global GDP, or 29 cents per person per day from 2015 to 2030. The primary obstacles are not financial but rather the political will and investment required to implement these cost-effective solutions.
Key strategies to improve water management and alleviate water stress include:
- Investing in water infrastructure to enhance storage and distribution.
- Implementing water-efficient technologies in agriculture, industry, and domestic use.
- Improving water governance and policies to promote sustainable water use.
- Protecting and restoring natural water resources.
- Promoting international cooperation on transboundary water management.
Governments, communities, and businesses at every level must collaborate to build a water-secure future for all. A comprehensive, multi-faceted approach, tailored to specific regional and local contexts, is essential.
These findings underscore the urgency of addressing global water stress. However, with proactive and informed management, every country has the potential to prevent water stress from escalating into a full-blown water crisis, ensuring a sustainable and water-secure future.
