Historically, the midterm elections in the United States often present a challenging landscape for the president’s party. A recurring trend shows that the party holding the presidency tends to lose seats in the House of Representatives during these elections. This article delves into this phenomenon, examining how many House seats, on average, a president’s party has lost in midterm elections, drawing insights from historical data compiled by the American Presidency Project at UC Santa Barbara.
The data from past midterm elections reveals a clear pattern. With few exceptions, the president’s party has experienced a net loss of seats in the House of Representatives. To illustrate this, consider the data from 1934 to 2022:
| President’s Job Approval Percentage (Gallup) As of: | President’s Party | Seat Change, President’s Party | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Lame Duck? | President | President’sParty | Early Aug | Late Aug | Early Sep |
| 1934 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | D | — | — | — | |
| 1938 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | D | — | — | — | |
| 1942 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | D | 74 | — | 74 | |
| 1946 | Harry S. Truman | D | — | — | 33 | |
| 1950 | LD* | Harry S. Truman | D | nd | 43 | 35 |
| 1954 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | R | 67 | 62 | — | |
| 1958 | LD | Dwight D. Eisenhower | R | 58 | 56 | 56 |
| 1962 | John F. Kennedy | D | — | 67 | — | |
| 1966 | † | Lyndon B. Johnson | D | 51 | 47 | — |
| 1970 | Richard Nixon | R | 55 | 55 | 57 | |
| 1974 | ± | Gerald R. Ford (Nixon) | R | 71 | — | 66 |
| 1978 | Jimmy Carter | D | 43 | 43 | 48 | |
| 1982 | Ronald Reagan | R | 41 | 42 | — | |
| 1986 | LD | Ronald Reagan | R | — | 64 | — |
| 1990 | George Bush | R | 75 | 73 | 54 | |
| 1994 | William J. Clinton | D | 43 | 40 | 40 | |
| 1998 | LD | William J. Clinton | D | 65 | 62 | 63 |
| 2002 | George W. Bush | R | — | 66 | 66 | |
| 2006 | LD | George W. Bush | R | 37 | 42 | 39 |
| 2010 | Barack Obama | D | 44 | 44 | 45 | |
| 2014 | LD | Barack Obama | D | 42 | 42 | 41 |
| 2018 | Donald J. Trump | R | R | 41 | 41 | |
| 2022 | Joseph R. Biden, Jr. | D | 38 | 44 | 44 |
This table presents data from midterm elections dating back to Franklin D. Roosevelt’s presidency, detailing the number of House seats the president’s party had to defend and the actual change in seats. A quick scan of the “House Seats” change column reveals predominantly negative numbers, indicating losses for the president’s party.
Analyzing the historical data, we can observe some significant shifts in House seats during midterm elections. For example, in 1938, under President Franklin D. Roosevelt, the Democratic party lost a substantial 81 House seats. Similarly, in 2010, during Barack Obama’s presidency, the Democrats lost 63 seats. More recently, in 2018, under President Donald Trump, the Republican party lost 40 House seats. These instances highlight the potential for considerable changes in the composition of the House of Representatives during midterm elections.
Chart illustrating the historical gains and losses of house seats for the president’s party in midterm elections.
However, it’s not always a story of losses. There are notable exceptions where the president’s party gained House seats in midterm elections. In 1934, during the early years of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s presidency, his party gained 9 House seats. Again in 1998, under President Bill Clinton, the Democratic party gained 5 seats, and in 2002, during George W. Bush’s term, the Republicans gained 8 seats. These instances, while less frequent, demonstrate that midterm elections are not uniformly negative for the president’s party.
Presidential approval ratings often play a significant role in midterm election outcomes. The provided data includes Gallup job approval percentages for each president leading up to the midterm elections. Lower approval ratings often correlate with larger House seat losses for the president’s party. Conversely, in years where the president’s party gained seats, approval ratings tended to be relatively stable or even positive.
Graph showing the relationship between presidential approval ratings and the change in house seats in midterm elections.
In conclusion, history suggests that the president’s party typically loses seats in the House of Representatives during midterm elections. While the exact number of seats lost can vary significantly depending on various factors, including presidential approval ratings and the political climate, the trend of losses is a notable feature of the US political landscape. Analyzing past midterm election results, as presented by the American Presidency Project, provides valuable insights into the dynamics of these crucial elections and the forces that shape the composition of the House of Representatives.
Sources:
- Presidential job approval data from The Gallup Poll.
- 1950 — 1994 Congressional seat gain/loss from Lyn Ragsdale, Vital Statistics on the Presidency, Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1998.
- 1934 — 1946 & 1998 — 2022 Congressional seat gain/loss; all years Senate seats to defend, by The American Presidency Project
- The American Presidency Project. “Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President’s Party in Mid-Term Elections.” Santa Barbara, CA: University of California. Available from the World Wide Web: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/node/332343/.
