How Much Has Biden Added to the National Debt?

The national debt is projected to reach a record high as a share of the economy under the next presidential administration, partially due to policies approved by Presidents Trump and Biden, including executive actions and legislation passed by Congress. Understanding the fiscal impact of presidential policies is crucial, especially when evaluating candidates who have already served as President. This analysis focuses on the estimated ten-year debt impact of policies approved by Presidents Trump and Biden around the time of enactment.

President Trump approved $8.4 trillion of new ten-year borrowing during his full term, or $4.8 trillion excluding COVID-19 relief.
President Biden, in his first three years and five months, approved $4.3 trillion of new ten-year borrowing, or $2.2 trillion excluding the American Rescue Plan.
President Trump approved $8.8 trillion of gross new borrowing and $443 billion in deficit reduction.
President Biden has approved $6.2 trillion of gross new borrowing and $1.9 trillion in deficit reduction.

Debt Under President Trump

During his four-year term, President Trump approved $8.4 trillion in new ten-year borrowing, or $4.8 trillion excluding COVID-19 relief. This includes $8.8 trillion in deficit-increasing actions offset by $443 billion in deficit-reducing actions. These figures are based on scores of legislation and executive actions at the time of enactment.

These estimates are based on scores of legislation and executive actions rather than retrospective estimates. Scores are generally made on a conventional basis, though the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) is scored dynamically. The actual debt impact of the policies was likely somewhat higher than these scores. In particular, the TCJA likely reduced revenue more than projected and saved less from repealing the individual health care mandate penalty,3 while the Employee Retention Credit was likely far more expensive than originally estimated.

Key actions approved by President Trump include:

Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017: +$1.9 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Acts of 2018 & 2019: +$2.1 trillion
ACA Tax Delays & Repeals: +$539 billion
Health Executive Actions: +$456 billion
Other Legislation: +$310 billion
New & Increased Tariffs: -$443 billion
CARES Act: +$1.9 trillion
Response & Relief Act: +$983 billion
Other COVID Relief: +$756 billion

Debt Under President Biden

In his first three years and five months, President Biden has approved $4.3 trillion in new ten-year borrowing, or $2.2 trillion excluding the American Rescue Plan Act. This includes $6.2 trillion in deficit-increasing actions offset by $1.9 trillion in deficit-reducing actions.

These estimates are based on scores of legislation and executive actions rather than retrospective estimates and do not include preliminary rules, unexecuted “side deals,” or actions ruled illegal by the Supreme Court. Updated scores and in-process actions would increase the total. For example, an updated estimate would likely wipe away the $252 billion of scored savings from the Inflation Reduction Act,4 the informal FRA side deals would reduce its savings by about $500 billion, and the new student debt cancellation plan could cost $250 to $750 billion.

Key actions approved by President Biden include:

Appropriations for FY 2022 & 2023: +$1.4 trillion
Honoring Our PACT Act: +$520 billion
Bipartisan Infrastructure Law: +$439 billion
Other Legislation: +$422 billion
Student Debt Actions: +$620 billion
Other Executive Actions: +$548 billion
Fiscal Responsibility Act: -$1.5 trillion
Inflation Reduction Act: -$252 billion
Deficit-Reducing Executive Actions: -$129 billion
American Rescue Plan Act: +$2.1 trillion

Conclusion

Both Presidents Trump and Biden approved substantial amounts of new borrowing during their time in office. President Trump approved $8.4 trillion over a decade, while President Biden has approved $4.3 trillion in his first three years and five months. Congress also shares accountability, as it passed legislation constituting the majority of the fiscal impact under both presidents.

While some borrowing was justified, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant portion was extraneous or unnecessary. Addressing the national debt requires a commitment to fiscal responsibility and sustainable long-term budget plans.

Appendix I: Details of Policies Approved by President Trump

Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (**$1.9 trillion debt increase)** – The TCJA included several tax cuts and reforms. Among those changes, the law reduced individual and corporate income tax rates, virtually eliminated the alternative minimum taxes, repealed or limited numerous deductions and tax breaks, replaced personal and dependent exemptions with an expanded standard deduction and Child Tax Credit, established a new deduction for pass-through business income, shrunk the estate tax, offered full expensing of equipment purchases, and reformed the tax treatment of international income. Most individual and estate tax changes were temporary while most corporate changes were permanent. The legislation also repealed the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate penalty. As a result of these policy changes, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected the TCJA would boost output by roughly 1 percent at peak and 0.6 percent after a decade. The estimate incorporated in this analysis includes the dynamic feedback effects of this faster growth, based on CBO’s April 2018 analysis of the bill. While it is impossible to know exactly how the bill’s fiscal impact compared to this prospective estimate, a number of factors point towards it adding significantly more to the debt, including: higher-than-expected inflation and nominal incomes and profits leading to higher revenue loss; SALT cap workarounds; increased use of bonus depreciation; and lower than expected revenue from limiting the use of pass-through losses. As a reference point, CBO’s latest estimate for extending the expiring elements of the TCJA is almost 50 percent higher than its 2018 estimate. In addition, the budgetary savings from the individual mandate penalty repeal were likely less than originally projected.
The Bipartisan Budget Acts of 2018 and 2019 (**$2.1 trillion debt increase)** – The Bipartisan Budget Acts (BBA) of 2018 and 2019 increased the caps on defense and nondefense discretionary spending set by the 2011 Budget Control Act (BCA) and further reduced through a ‘sequester’ activated after the failure of the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction. BBA 2018 increased the caps in FY 2018 and 2019 by a combined $296 billion, effectively repealing the $91 billion per year sequester and further increasing spending above the BCA caps. BBA 2019 essentially codified these increases by boosting the FY 2020 and 2021 caps by a combined $320 billion. Because the 2021 cap was the final year of the BCA caps, BBA 2019 increased baseline discretionary spending levels beyond 2021 to the new 2021 level plus inflation. Both bills also included smaller additional policies, including some partial offsets. In total, BBA 2018 added $418 billion to the ten-year debt and BBA 2019 added $1.7 trillion.
ACA Tax Delays and Repeals (**$539 billion debt increase)** – Three taxes enacted by the 2010 Affordable Care Act (ACA) – the health insurer tax, the “Cadillac tax” on high-cost health insurance, and the medical device excise tax – were delayed in a 2018 continuing resolution. They were subsequently repealed in one of the full-year funding bills for FY 2020. The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimated that the health insurer tax would have raised about $150 billion over a decade, the Cadillac tax would have raised $200 billion, and the medical device excise tax would have raised $25 billion. In addition to these tax repeals, policymakers enacted roughly $70 billion of other unpaid-for policies related to health care, retirement savings, and other priorities in these two bills. Interest costs added $64 billion more.
Health Executive Actions (*$456 billion**debt increase*)** – President Trump approved two health-related executive actions with significant costs over his term. Ending federal appropriations for the ACA’s cost-sharing reduction payments in 2017 led insurers to raise premiums on “silver” ACA plans to fund low-income cost sharing subsidies, ultimately increasing the cost of federal subsidies by an estimated $220 billion. Meanwhile, a 2020 rule to restrict prescription drug rebates paid to pharmacy benefit managers and insurer plans was estimated to cost $177 billion. Interest costs added $59 billion more. Importantly, the rebate rule was delayed and ultimately repealed by Congress under President Biden.
Other Legislation (**$310 billion debt increase)** – President Trump signed a number of other deficit-increasing bills into law over the course of his term. This includes several appropriations bills for disaster relief as well as the changes to mandatory programs (CHIMPs) that boosted spending in the full-year appropriations bills enacted in his term. Additionally, President Trump signed a permanent extension of several tax “extenders,” which are tax policies that have been routinely extended for short periods. Finally, he signed the Great American Outdoors Act, which transferred certain offsetting receipts and authorized them to be spent without appropriation, and the permanent authorization of the 9/11 victims fund, which authorized funds to pay out claims to 9/11 victims.
Tariffs (**$443 billion debt reduction)** – Over the course of his presidency, President Trump used his authority under the Trade Act of 1974 and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1978 to increase a number of import tariffs through executive action. Beginning in 2018, the Trump Administration announced the imposition or increase to a variety of tariffs, including on washing machines, solar panels, and steel and aluminum products. In 2019, the tariff rate on many Chinese imports was increased from 10 percent to 25 percent. Based on CBO’s estimates at the time, we estimate these tariffs will have generated over $440 billion of revenue and interest savings over a decade.
The CARES Act (**$1.9 trillion debt increase)** – Enacted in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, the bipartisan CARES Act included expanded and extended unemployment benefits, economic relief checks of $1,200 per eligible adult and $500 per child, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) to provide support to small businesses to keep employees on payroll, and emergency disaster loans and grants to businesses, industries, health care facilities, educational institutions, state and local governments, and others, among many other provisions. Based on our ongoing tracking, the actual fiscal impact of the CARES Act was likely similar to the initial score though perhaps slightly higher overall.
The Response & Relief Act (**$983 billion debt increase)** – Enacted in December 2020 as part of the omnibus appropriations bill for Fiscal Year (FY) 2021, the Response & Relief Act included funding for a second tranche of PPP payments and small business grants, an extension of enhanced unemployment benefits, economic relief checks of $600 per eligible person, funding support for schools and higher education institutions, vaccine and testing funding, targeted support to industries greatly impacted by COVID-19, an extension and expansion of the Employee Retention Credit, and an extension of various other COVID-related tax and spending relief programs. Based on our ongoing tracking, the actual fiscal impact of the Response & Relief Act was likely higher than the initial score due to the significantly higher-than-expected deficit increase from the Employee Retention Credit.
Other COVID Relief (**$756 billion debt increase)** – President Trump approved several other measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic and recession. This includes the three other COVID relief laws enacted in March and April 2020: the Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act, the Families First Coronavirus Response Act, and the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act. It also includes the student loan repayment pauses enacted at the onset of COVID and extended after the CARES Act’s pause ended in October 2020. President Trump also approved other executive actions that resulted in little deficit impact. Based on our ongoing tracking, the actual fiscal impact of these bills were likely much higher than the initial score due to the significantly higher-than-expected revenue loss from the Employee Retention Credit and the higher Medicaid and SNAP costs resulting from a longer-than-projected public health emergency.

Appendix II: Details of Policies Approved by President Biden So Far

Appendix III: Methodology

This analysis estimates the additional borrowing approved by Presidents Trump and Biden through tax and spending changes passed by Congress or contained in executive actions from their administrations. It does not estimate the amount of debt that accumulated over their terms, which partially reflects actions taken prior to their time in office and does not account for the fiscal impact of the actions approved by the President but incurred outside of his four-year term. We will publish changes in debt during their terms in a supplemental analysis.

Our analysis incorporates all major pieces of legislation and executive actions – those with more than $10 billion of ten-year budget impact – approved by Presidents Trump and Biden. Estimates rely on ten-year budget scores, as under standard convention. In order to rely on official scores wherever possible, however, all estimates are based on the ten-year budget window at the time of enactment – meaning different policies cover different time frames and thus are not purely additive or comparable.

In general, estimates rely on official estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) presented prospectively. When such scores are not available or not comprehensive, we may use estimates from the Office of Management and Budget, the regulatory agencies, or our own estimates.

Estimates are not updated to incorporate data and results made available well after implementation; no legislation signed by either President Trump or President Biden has been re-estimated in full to incorporate observed costs or effects, and partial updates would bias the overall numbers. However, possible differences between initial scores and actual costs, including from the TCJA, the IRA, and COVID relief, are discussed throughout this paper.

Estimates incorporate impact on interest costs, which we calculate using the most recent CBO debt service tool at the time of enactment, unless interest impact is included in the estimate. Estimates are generally based on conventional scoring, but in the case of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, we incorporate macroeconomic impacts as estimated by CBO shortly after enactment.

All estimates are in nominal dollars at the time of approval, which means deficit impact from earlier budget windows generally represent a larger share of GDP per dollar due to higher price levels and output over time.

Finally, the estimates are based on the policies as written and do not try to correct for arbitrary cliffs, side agreements, or other budget gimmicks that may create a misleading picture of the intended fiscal impact of the policy.

1 Our estimates compare ten-year estimates of each action before implementation, generally using prospective scores of policies and adding them together despite being over different windows. Although this is not a perfect apples-to-apples comparison for a variety of reasons, it allows us to rely on official numbers and continue to compare over time. See the methodology section for a more detailed explanation.

2 Many pieces of legislation with fiscal impact include tax and spending changes that both add to and reduce projected deficits. The $8.8 trillion figure is based on the net deficit impact of deficit-increasing bills, rather than the gross deficit increases within those bills. For example, the $1.9 trillion impact of the TCJA represents the combination of tax cuts, base broadening, lower spending as a result of repealing the individual mandate penalty, interest, and dynamic effects on revenue and spending.

3 The larger deficit impact from the TCJA is due to a combination of a larger nominal tax base, lower health savings from individual mandate repeal, the unexpected use of a SALT cap workaround, reduced revenue collection from the limit on pass-through losses, higher revenue loss related to bonus depreciation, and other factors.

4 Due to higher prices and output, greater demand for subsidized activities, and laxer-than-expected regulations, the IRA’s energy provisions are now expected to have a fiscal impact of $660 billion – about two-thirds more than the original estimate of roughly $400 billion. This excludes the effects of the Administration’s vehicle emissions rule, which we’ve scored separately. At the same time, revenue collection under the IRA is also likely to be higher in light of higher-than-projected nominal corporate profits, greater expected voluntary tax compliance, and less-than-expected responsiveness to the buyback tax. Overall, we believe a re-estimate of the IRA would be roughly budget neutral. The emissions rule approved by President Biden would increase deficits by about $170 billion – mainly by further increasing the fiscal impact of the IRA tax credits – and is included in our tally of his executive actions.

5 In a previous analysis, we estimated that $500 to 650 billion of COVID relief was extraneous – unrelated to the pandemic or subsequent economic fallout – including $300 to $335 billion enacted under President Trump and $200 to $315 billion under President Biden. These prior estimates are not perfectly comparable to estimates in this paper but give a sense of scale. In additional analyses, we estimated that the American Rescue plan likely significantly overshot the output gap it was aiming to close while providing excessive relief to a number of sectors. There were also excesses and lack of targeting in earlier COVID relief packages, including as it related to stimulus checks, the additional $600 of weekly unemployment benefits, and the Paycheck Protection Program.