The New York Mets have made a significant investment in Juan Soto, signing him to a massive contract that has the baseball world buzzing. A 15-year commitment is an eternity in professional sports, prompting many to ask: how will Juan Soto perform as he ages? To understand this, we delve into baseball history and statistical analysis to project Soto’s future trajectory.
To gauge what the Mets can expect from Soto over this lengthy contract, we need to look at historical precedents. We examined players with similar early career production through their age-25 seasons to Soto. By analyzing how these comparable players performed in their subsequent years, we can gain valuable insights into Soto’s potential aging curve.
Through his age-25 season, Juan Soto’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) ranks him among the elite in baseball history since integration. Specifically, he sits in the top 10, an impressive feat. To build our comparison group, we considered the nine players ranked higher and the ten players ranked lower than Soto in WAR at this career stage. This group includes legendary names like Mike Trout and Willie Mays, providing a robust sample for projection.
Looking at the five seasons following their age-25 year (ages 26-30), these comparable players averaged a remarkable 32 WAR. This translates to over 6 WAR per season, demonstrating sustained high-level performance into their late twenties. Willie Mays led this group, averaging just under 9 WAR during this period. However, there were also players like César Cedeño, whose production declined significantly after age 30.
Extending the timeframe to 15 years beyond age 25, our historical sample averaged 58 WAR, or slightly under 4 WAR per season. Proportionally, these players accumulated 171 percent more WAR from ages 26 to 40 than they had through age 25. Applying this to Soto, with his 36 WAR through age 25, projections suggest he could contribute around 62 WAR over the span of his 15-year contract with the Mets, extending until 2039.
This level of production would make the Mets’ investment seem quite reasonable. Based on these projections, the Mets would be paying approximately $12.3 million per WAR, which is not an exorbitant figure in today’s free-agent market. The historical data suggests that players with Soto’s early career trajectory tend to maintain significant value well into their thirties.
It’s worth noting the wide range of outcomes within our historical sample. Willie Mays, for instance, achieved an astounding 378 percent more WAR after age 25 than before. Barry Bonds also saw a massive increase, while others like Cedeño experienced sharp declines. This highlights the inherent uncertainty in projecting any player’s career over such a long period. (It’s important to remember that players like Trout, Mookie Betts, and Manny Machado are still active and therefore not fully represented in the long-term data.)
The players in our comparison group reached their value in different ways. Cedeño relied on speed and defense, while Andruw Jones was renowned for his defensive prowess. Hank Aaron was a consistent hitter with power. Among these comparisons, Frank Robinson stands out as potentially the most similar to Juan Soto.
Frank Robinson and Juan Soto have remarkably similar career trajectories through age 25. Robinson accumulated 37.3 WAR compared to Soto’s 36.4. Their career OPS figures are also strikingly close. While Robinson was considered a better defender in the outfield, Soto boasts a slightly higher OPS+.
Robinson’s performance after age 25 provides an encouraging outlook for Soto. He averaged nearly 7 WAR per season from age 26 to 30 and over 5 WAR per season through age 38. In total, Robinson generated 70 WAR after age 25. The Mets would undoubtedly be thrilled if Soto could replicate this sustained level of production. Historically, only Tom Seaver has exceeded 50 WAR as a Met, emphasizing the potential impact Soto could have on the franchise.
Baseball scouts generally express confidence in Soto’s offensive skills aging gracefully. One scout noted that even if Soto’s power diminishes somewhat, his exceptional plate discipline and hitting ability should endure. Another scout drew a comparison to Barry Bonds, praising Soto’s “controlled aggression” and advanced understanding of hitting.
However, scouts have some reservations about Soto’s defense. There is a consensus that a position change is likely, with questions about whether he can play positions other than designated hitter as he gets older. Some scouts believe his defensive limitations in right field could be costly, raising the possibility of a move to first base in the future. Ultimately, Soto’s long-term defensive viability will depend on his physical conditioning and ability to maintain his athleticism as he ages.
In conclusion, while predicting the future is inherently uncertain, historical data and expert opinions offer a positive outlook for Juan Soto’s performance as he progresses through his 15-year contract. While questions about his defense remain, his exceptional offensive talent is expected to endure, making him a valuable asset for the Mets for years to come.
